• sbv@sh.itjust.works
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    8 months ago

    “Slower growth in prices may be imperceptible to consumers who are still paying more than 20 per cent more for a basket of groceries relative to three years ago — the biggest such increase in 40 years,” [said a TD economist]…

    While the pain at the cash register for staples like food and gasoline is getting comparatively better,

    I always get a kick out of these pieces. The expert says we’re “still paying more”. Then the writer says “the pain … is getting comparatively better.”

    If that 20% is a noticeable part of your budget, it isn’t getting better.

  • Kecessa@sh.itjust.works
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    8 months ago

    The problem is that it’s a year on year comparison, they should use a point in time and give a second number that would be a comparison to that point.

    https://cupe.ca/cpi-calculator

    From June 2019 to June this year inflation is 15.33%, that’s something people can understand and feel, not 3.1% since last year. It’s also using a reference point that is much more logical, months before a period of international turmoil, it shows us the impact the events of the last few years had and explains why we see inequality suddenly getting much much worse.

    • LeFantome@programming.dev
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      8 months ago

      What are you using the inflation number for? How does saying it is up 15% help you?

      The point of measuring inflation at all is that we can use the information to make decisions. Knowing that inflation is slowing or rising is useful. I know prices have gone up. What I want to know is how much they are likely to go up in the future. Am I stockpiling sugar or putting a little money into stocks? How long should I lock my mortgage in for? Will I even be able to afford it? Do I need a second source of income? Or do I think I might be able to save a little this year for a big purchase? How much money am I going to need to retire? How old will I be?

      The value of these numbers is forward looking. If I want to know that prices have gone up, I can just go to the store. I do not need the government for that.

    • whoisearth@lemmy.ca
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      8 months ago

      Those far smarter than me will and have commented on this before but my understanding is for purity sake there are specific ways they quantify inflation and the method you’re referring to is far more disingenuous.

      Personally speaking, year over year “makes sense” as this way it doesn’t mask potentially disastrous trends (ie. disinflation).

      • Kecessa@sh.itjust.works
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        8 months ago

        Year on year only makes sense for economists, it doesn’t make sense for regular people, hence all the comments every time they report the numbers saying “Yeah well my grocery is up X%, rent is up Y%, gas Z%, that’s a whole lot more than what they’re reporting!”

        People live inflation long term, not on a yearly basis and those who are lucky enough to be unionized negotiate their wage increase over multiple years, not every year, both numbers are important, it’s still dishonest to only report the year on year increase when people still have it fresh in mind that lettuce was 99 cents not too long ago and it’s been over 4$ for years now, to them inflation isn’t 3%, it’s 400% on lettuce, the fact that it’s stagnated for the last year means nothing on their budget when they suddenly had a hard time buying and they still have a hard time buying it.

        • whoisearth@lemmy.ca
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          8 months ago

          I don’t disagree with a lot you’re saying but there’s a reason economists use x to x comparisons and that’s because your best comparison for October 2023 is October 2022 not September 2023.

          What you’re describing is where, and it sucks saying this because it’s cold AF, numbers don’t care about feelings.

          The layman like you and I want to put our lives into context on the numbers we see because we are in the weeds. That’s fine and good and we are 100% valid in feeling the way we do but it doesn’t change the reality that the best comparison for October 2023 is October 2022.

          Now again I’m a dumbass. There are plenty better than me at explaining this but as someone currently doing heavy data analysis on a P1 we had at work you do not compare the day of the failure with the previous day because they’re two different days of the week. Processes differ per day. If the issue happened on Thursday I want to compare it against previous Thursdays.

          • Kecessa@sh.itjust.works
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            8 months ago

            By this logic might as well take last month to compare because it’s even closer!

            If you compare the same month because you expect it to be the same annual conditions then you can use the same month two years prior or three years prior… Will you look at that, that’s what I did! June to June, 15.33% over 4 years where you would have expected inflation to be 8.2% based on the BoC’s objective to have inflation at 2%.

            I’m not saying year on year isn’t important to report, I’m saying they should report more than just that so people understand the difference and understand why 3% isn’t what they’re seeing.

            Hell, did you know they also adjust the goods they use to compare so the 3% might be inside a basket of food but suddenly you’re not buying chicken, you’re buying tofu? Sure that’s what people do in reaction to inflation, it still gives a very skewed view of what the real inflation is. With a fixed basket of goods inflation was higher than 15% in the USA in 2022 and you know what’s funny? Anyone could have told you that the reported number made no sense when looking at the actual cost of living.

            I’m still waiting on people “far smarter than you” to come and tell me I’m wrong to find it ridiculous that they only report year on year, funny they’re not here.#

            • whoisearth@lemmy.ca
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              8 months ago

              The people far smarter than us are the ones that do month over month and not the way you want. I fail to see how you are smarter that legions of economists around the world.

              Again, I get what you’re saying. For a layman like you and I it helps our emotions to do it a different way. What I keep stressing is that to those experts there is an intentional reason to not include emotion when analyzing numbers. If you do so you run the risk of making the wrong decisions.

              You are free to continue screaming into the wind because the process is different than you would like. I’m simply telling you it isn’t. There are more than likely very VERY good reasons. Better to spend your energy on more productive things.

  • Showroom7561@lemmy.ca
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    8 months ago

    who are still paying more than 20 per cent more for a basket of groceries relative to three years ago

    Well, according to my grocery records, it’s a MINIMUM 20% more on most items. Some are 200% more and some are 60% more.

    • KrummsHairyBalls@lemmy.ca
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      8 months ago

      I said this a few months ago and I was downvoted lmao.

      When grocery prices go from $4 to $8, that’s a 100% increase. Or when prices go from $2.50 to $8 that’s a 220% increase.

      Might not seem so bad on paper, but when you add it all together on your full grocery bill, it’s turning the final bill from $100 to $200-250, which is bat shit insane.

      I bought knock off mustard yesterday. Normal sized bottle. Cost me $8.

      • Showroom7561@lemmy.ca
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        8 months ago

        People down voting aren’t are the ones grocery shopping.

        I also think people are missing the fact that while prices have gone up, shrinkflation has been out of control.

        So while it may look like “only” a 50% increase for the package, the price per unit (often by weight) ends up being more like a 75% increase.

        I have containers which wouldn’t be able to store a regular sized box of regular cereal, but now it gets to 3/4 full with the “family sized” version of the same cereal. And I’m paying double for it. Some of the cereal boxes look comically thin, like cigarette packages. And you’re paying 2-3x more by weight. Absolute insanity.

      • Papamousse@beehaw.org
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        8 months ago

        Fucking cereal box, the family size is $10.99, wtf?!?

        When they are $5.49 on amazon I buy a dozen

    • Pyr_Pressure@lemmy.ca
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      8 months ago

      My dogs food used to be $29.99 a case, now it’s $42.99 a case. That’s a 40% increase in two years. Crazy.

    • blindsight@beehaw.org
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      8 months ago

      That stood out to me, too. Stripping out mortgage interest, inflation is at 2.1%.

      It can’t completely be looked at in isolation like that, of course; part of the reason prices are lower on most things aside from groceries and housing is because people just don’t have money left over for these things after paying for essentials. If mortgage interest were lower, demand for other guys would be higher and prices would rise faster.

      Still, this adds support for BoC rates to stay frozen in the near term and decline in 2024.

      • whoisearth@lemmy.ca
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        8 months ago

        Can I be one to say that despite all the shit on reddit that was given about the BoC not doing enough, or doing too much… So far they’ve done a damn good job at managing this given the fact that Jesus Christ are we dealing with once in a century issues. I will also give the Liberals props and the OPC props. We know what bad leadership looked like (see Alberta) but by and large most provinces and the country have turned out surprisingly well compared to their global partners.

        1. Pandemic
        2. War in Ukraine
        3. Escalating climate change

        Yet here in Canada on a global scale we are still prospering and doing well. I"m speaking broad generalizations here. So if you’re not doing well on an individual level I hear you, it sucks and we should be doing better.

      • MajorMajormajormajor@lemmy.ca
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        8 months ago

        Well, when our glorious landlords own multiple properties with variable mortgages and rates go up, they pass on the increases to the tennents. So it’s not directly tied, but there is a connection.

        • whoisearth@lemmy.ca
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          8 months ago

          Those “glorious landlords” you’re referring to should have their multiple properties seized or have their financials squeezed to the point of blood. Fuck every last one of them. People have by and large turned into greedy fucks and it’s disgusting.

        • n2burns@lemmy.ca
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          8 months ago

          Not really. Rent is based on demand and landlords will take as much as the market will bear. It’s pretty much independent of mortgage rates.

          Case in point, rent in Southwestern Ontario exploded in 2020 & 2021, when interest rates were low and have stayed pretty level since, even with the significant increase in rates.

            • n2burns@lemmy.ca
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              8 months ago

              Not really. In a system where demand is fairly inelastic (everyone needs somewhere to live and the only real flex is having roommates/living at home/homelessness or renting two apartments) and where the supply is currently extremely constrained, expenses are going to have next to no impact on rental prices.

              For example, I was fortunately able to buy a townhouse two years ago (when interest rates were low) to live in. My mortgage is ~ $1,200/mo. Other units have been going on the rental market pretty consistently for ~$2,000/mo. Even with the increased interest rates, new landlord’s would still have a net positive of ~$500/mo between the rent they receive and their mortgage payments. There might be a loss of profit, but with profits already so high, it’s not going to affect rates on a macro scale.

            • LeFantome@programming.dev
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              8 months ago

              Mostly no. The major drivers of price are supply and demand, not cost and demand. However, the “most profitable price” ( which is rarely the highest for those unfamiliar with economics ) does increase with the marginal cost. So the cost of production does play a role.