Of course he’s going to have highly optimistic predictions since he runs a think tank dedicated to decarbonisation. This is more of a publicity piece.
That being said, it’s great to see the drops in pricing on solar as it makes it more accessible for people to retrofit their homes.
But the cost to install them will quadruple with inflation and labor shortages
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Solar module prices may approach the threshold of $0.10/W by the end of 2024 or eventually in 2025, according to Tim Buckley, director of Australia-based think tank Climate Energy Finance (CEF).
Buckley said price pressure will increase due to the staggering capacity increases announced by the PV industry at the global level, although he questioned a recent forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its recent World Energy Outlook 2023, which claimed thaT the world’s cumulative installed solar capacity could reach 2 TW by 2025.
“As this new capacity is brought online for a full year, I would expect the IEA figures to be undercooked by over 50% in terms of global annual solar installs.”
“This will give many investors in the US, India, EU and China good reasons to pause or rethink their financial assumptions that underpinned their announcements of massive capacity expansions,” he said.
Rapid deflation and excessive price pressures, on the other hand, may soon lead to the closure of old technology, sub-scale solar manufacturing facilities, both in China and globally.
“Old facilities simply can’t compete with the scale advantages nor the new technology investments of the world leading firms in this sector, almost all of which are Chinese,” said Buckley.
The original article contains 634 words, the summary contains 205 words. Saved 68%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
I wonder what it would cost if there was actually a plan for EOL panels to keep them out of landfill.
As an anecdote, I can tell that I’m still using my shattered solar panels. :)
(Normal people would not, of course.)
One broke during welding because a droplet of molten metal hit it - the hardened glass shattered all over. Another met with a flying plywood sheet during a storm - the plywood went right through with a corner and made a hole.
I use both panels on a wheelbarrow to pump water on the field during flood season. They’re perfect, nobody wants to steal them because they look like they got nuked. :D I worry about the wheelbarrow considerably more. :D
But yes, a recycling plan would be needed. Grinding them up and getting the aluminum back is not too hard, but how to separate the glass from the sealing silicone and doped silicon - I know some folks in Korea do it, but I don’t know how. :o
