Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., has issued a dire warning to her party about the chaos that could ensue if they succeed in pushing President Joe Biden off the ticket. And she criticized Democrats who’ve given off-the-record quotes that suggest the party has resigned itself to a second Trump term.
In an Instagram Live video on Thursday, Ocasio-Cortez warned liberals that a brokered convention could lead to chaos, in part because she says some of the Democratic “elites” who want Biden out also don’t want Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee in his place.
“If you think that is going to be an easy transition, I’m here to tell you that a huge amount of the donor class and these elites who are pushing for the president not to be the nominee also do not want to see the VP be the nominee,” she said.
Ocasio-Cortez claimed none of the people she’s spoken with who are calling on Biden to drop out — including lawmakers and legal experts — have articulated a plan to swap out the nominee without minimizing the serious legal and procedural challenges that are likely to ensue.
Ocasio-Cortez also highlighted the racial, ethnic and class divisions that appear to have formed between the majority of those pining to blow up the ticket — led mostly by white Democrats and media pundits — and those elected officials who feel they and their constituents have too much at stake to upend the process at this point and so are willing to do the work to re-elect Biden-Harris. She alluded to this cultural divide in her video when she spoke out against anonymous sources expressing a sense of fatalism on behalf of Democrats about what might happen if Biden remains on the ticket:
What I will say is what upsets me is [Democrats] saying we will lose. For me, to a certain extent, I don’t care what name is on there. We are not losing. I don’t know about you, but my community does not have the option to lose. My community does not have the luxury of accepting loss in July of an election year. My people are the first ones deported. They’re the first ones put in Rikers. They’re the first ones whose families are killed by war.
It’s annoying that she put this on Instagram where there’s no scrobble function, and she then spends so much time leading up to it.
For those not willing to sit around listening to off-the-cuff meandering, AOC’s points:
- Ohio requires political parties to submit their candidates’ names before the Democratic convention. If the convention is contested, Democrats likely won’t be able to vote there effectively.
- AOC says that swing states might have enough legal ambiguity in the electoral code that Republicans can challenge any voting results, and then let it escalate to the Supreme Court who can throw out the Democratic result.
- Democrats are divided on who would be the replacement candidate, with many of the people calling for Biden to step down opposing Harris as well.
- The Biden/Harris campaign has $100M of campaign funding that will not be able to be transferred to another ticket. (Maybe it can be transferred to Harris? She mumbles a bit there).
- Anecdotally, when AOC sat “in rooms with those people” that call for Biden to step down, they didn’t seem to have a proposed game plan for any sort of replacement. This includes lawyers who ought to know whether this creates legal trouble and people in the legislature.
- There is a risk that if the Democratic convention is contested, it won’t be concluded before the deadline to submit the ticket in more states, which is two days after the scheduled end.
- There are no candidates that poll way better than Biden.
- Many mail-in votes can already be made in September or October. A new candidate would have to have a succesful campaign by that time.
- Biden is systematically underestimated (by Democrats and fianciers?) in his ability to rally ‘demographics typically not cared for’.
- Biden does great with elderly people, which may not transfer to other Democrats.
- Democrats opposing Biden seem to be mostly concerned about big donors, not popular support.
- Democratic party members speaking anonymously to the press is both strategically stupid and undemocratic. They should have either spoken out publicly or kept it behind closed doors. The fact that they did may be why Biden is polling so bad.
- Biden gets energized from having people around him, which was not the case for the debate with Trump.
My personal opinions:
- With regards to Ohio, betting websites put the Republicans at 95% chance of winning the state, and Biden appears to have been trailing by 10 percentage points even before the debate. Losing Ohio only matters if you would have won Ohio with Biden, and that’s questionable.
- With regards to the Supreme court handing the election to Trump based on a bullshit legal ruling, it seems like AOC is making the dangerous and questionable assumption that the Supreme Court cares about the law, and that the outcome of these legal challenges will depend on technicalities rather than on whether they think they can practically succeed at the coup.
- With regards to the $100M war chest, this seems to be cancelled out by her argument that Democrats opposing Trump are mostly concerned about donors. In 2020, Biden’s election got $1 billion in funding while on May 9th, Biden had raked in $170M according to this website. So with upwards of $700M of donations left to collect, a 14% decrease in donations would mean Biden has less money to work with than other candidates.
- With regards to other candidates not doing much better, it seems impressive that they are polling better than Biden even with Biden running a massive election campaign and having spent a hundred million dollars in ads already. I would expect the gap to widen if those other candidates actually start trying to win the election as much as Biden is.
- With regards to the votes in September and October, with regards to the elderly and demographics typically not cared for and popular support, these all seem to be cancelled out by the polls.
- With regards to the Democrat backchannels, the damage is done. It’s fair that she’s mad about it, but it doesn’t affect future decisions.
- With regards to Biden’s energy, either this doesn’t explain the Zelensky-Putin gaffe, or it’s kind of irrelevant. Biden won’t be sitting in the oval office with an audience to work off of.
So from everything AOC says, all that seems reasonable to me is (1) the observation that there is no good Democratic alternative plan, (2) the worry that the convention might run long so the alternative candidate can’t appear on the ticket, (3) the possibility that a succesful Republican coup is significantly more likely with a candidate that might provide loopholes for the Supreme Court to work off of than with Biden, and (4) the possibility of losing Ohio if Biden would otherwise have won it.
However, even here, the parts of the alternative plan she is most worried about seems to be the legal trouble, which she seems most worried about only if the Democrats aren’t on time with selecting a candidate. It seems to me that if only the Democrats are able to rally behind a new candidate before the Ohio deadline two days before the convention, none of her concerns apply more to the new candidate than to Biden. If it happens after the Ohio deadline, it only matters if there is a technicality that disqualifies the new candidate and Biden would otherwise have won Ohio and that technicality determines whether a coup succesfully occurs.
Thanks for the synopsis.
In regards to a few of your points:
- There is a reason “generic democrat” polls better in general. It’s because they’re an unknown quantity. People assume they’ll be better. Most people are not tuned in and do not know who Whitmer, Newsom, etc. are. Give it like two weeks of negative ads on them calling them socialists, etc. and boom, the polls drop. I would fully expect the polls to shift for a new candidate but LOWER, not higher. It’s much easier to inspire fear in unknown candidates rather than known ones.
- Biden is a known quantity. He cannot be decried as a “socialist” or any other thing. People know him for better or worse and that’s that.
- Elderly? The most reliable voting block in the country? Ignore them at your own peril for an unknown.
AOC makes solid points and so I take a few things differently from you and say she is precisely right in her analysis. I think if the Dems switch then we get a Humphrey/Mondale mashup where the Democrats are absolutely trounced in the general.
The time for this crap was 2 years ago, not the past month. Democrats need to find a stiff upper lip and back Biden with all their might.
Too late. He dropped out.
Time to see who was right. Im damn positive it will be those who are cheering today who will be crying in November.
It’s going to be a hot mess, that’s for sure.
If you view it as a full screen reel and not a regular post in a feed then you should be able to select a time. Instagram is stupid.
Is it not called “scrubbing”? Scrobble is music
With no path to victory by Biden, a vote for Biden is a vote for Trump.
Fuck off. I don’t think Biden can win this, but the ONLY viable choice is whichever D is actually running.
Joined four days ago and clearly here for the open dialogue.
Added to the extensive blocklist.
Nice try. It’s only a vote for Trump if you don’t vote.
Nice try, all votes are votes for trump. Biden, third party, not voting, and trump, all are votes for trump. You’ve already voted for him and don’t know it, check your back pocket, there you’ll find a ballot where all the candidates are trump and they’re all filled out. Even your parakeet is voting for trump. Once trump wins again, he’ll split and clone himself like a bacteria and then the new clone will be able to win two more terms since it’s a legally distinct entity, and all votes will be votes for clonotrump.
Did you used to write copy for a Old Spice?
I wish haha.
Calm down there, we don’t live in Russia.
Yet.
Then who does my vote go to if I don’t vote for Trump either? I’m sure as fuck not voting for a Democrat, and I’m sure as fuck not voting for a Republican. From a communist perspective, you both are the same people.
So you were saying?
Vast majority of AOC’s support is from the acronym, AOC.
This aged like milk
Can you articulate which part you think aged like milk?
That is to be determined.
On paper, her argument is sound. There are plenty of moderates who are still not down for a female president, let alone one as outspoken as Kamala Harris.
I personally think her no-bullshit attitude is exactly what we need, but we will have to see how many people agree
No bullshit attitude?
The only person that spews more bullshit than Harris is Trump.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll still vote for her.
She is a shitheel, though.
I live in deep red country, and work in a deep red career field, a lot of today’s Trumpers have never forgiven Obama for being black, popular, and competent. They took it personally. Harris is going to mobilize the fuck out of them.
I think she’s the right pick, I think she can govern well, I’m voting for her 100%. But the Dems need to be prepared. This was a dammed if you do, dammed if you don’t situation for them. But replacing Biden isn’t even a fraction of the work they’re gonna have to do, and AOC is on point for speaking up about it.
Those Trumpers were going out to vote for him regardless of who his opponent is.
I think they were referring to if Harris beats Trump
Ah. Well, same deal either way. They’re already enraged at the world.
It’s a good thing Diane Feinstein died, with the DNC’s history of acting under pressure she’d have been their #1 pick
Good lord, they absolutely would have gone with her.
Aging like milk implies that she isn’t right about what she said.
Give it until November. If the Biden replacement wins by a landslide, then sure, it will age like milk.
Otherwise, so far, it’s aging like fucking fine wine - and I’m not liking it.
Nah she specifically said that Biden being forced out and Kamala not being supported by the establishment would be bad - which makes since because incumbency is a huge advantage
We did it! You are welcome America!
This is the most I have ever felt that we as demographic have been heard and acknowledged. Strategically placing ourselves in swing states was a smart long term strategy :D The bananas have brought you O’ monkey!
Uhm… Well the news just came in.
Well they just succeeded. So what now?
Probably Kamala.
Not ideal but then again the Democrats have a history of making stupid-ass decisions.
Now we get to find out if she’s right or not
This is illogical. That’s impossible to know unless you have a looking glass into the alternate timeline where Biden doesn’t drop out, as well as the timelines of different people replacing him.
Or you can look at basic probability. I could totally end up being wrong, but I find it incredibly unlikely that the DNC will nominate anyone but Kamala. They (hopefully) realize they need to get their shit together and choose a candidate ASAP.
Probably lose after they put themselves in the untenable position.
What untenable position?
They have no idea, just doomer division talk
Switching to someone with a 40% chance is better than sticking with a 26% chance.
Yeah, sticking with the guy who is losing in all the polls and can’t speak would have been a much better option.
Democrats pretty much put America in a lose-lost situation here. There’s is no good option here.
No arguments from me. I wonder how long Biden’s ego has been an impediment to Dems. Definitely for the past month but I suspect it’s been a lot longer.
Whoever replaces Biden will still immediately get the “I would vote for a literal hamster instead of Trump” crowd which is like 40% of the nation.
Confirmed, would vote for a literal hamster at this point.
Oh you mean reasonable people
Yeah, because the “Anyone But Bush” strategy worked so well.
That’s an absurd comparison. This election has nothing in common with Bush’s second election. Bush never would have survived a 10th of Trumps bullshit, he nearly got impeached for politicizing the DOJ using a litmus test. Fairly insignificant in comparison to Trump trying to blackmail Ukraine, and starting the jan 6 insurrection.
Keep deluding yourselves that simply going “Republican is bad” as your only strategy while offering nothing, you’re going to continue to lose election after election because the American electorate has never responded well to that.
But yeah, Democrats have some such a bang up fucking job of losing the House and now leading America down this absolute shit show of political genius here mid-election. Some great political strategy at work.
Can you hear other people when they talk, or are you just waiting for your turn?
That was pre-Tea Party
Yeah, the fact that college kids getting beaten up by cops over Palestinian genocide didn’t prompt this crisis of confidence in Biden but the donor class getting upset makes it dominate the airwaves is really annoying, but not at all surprising.
At the end of the day, whoever has the best chance of beating Trump should be our nominee whether it’s Biden or somebody else
What I will say is what upsets me is [Democrats] saying we will lose. For me, to a certain extent, I don’t care what name is on there. We are not losing. I don’t know about you, but my community does not have the option to lose. My community does not have the luxury of accepting loss in July of an election year. My people are the first ones deported. They’re the first ones put in Rikers. They’re the first ones whose families are killed by war.
This was really well said and echoes my feelings exactly
Who accepts loss months before the election when the other guy is already saying they won’t accept loss months after the election?
The average voter doesn’t particularly care about Palestine. You don’t have to like it but it’s true. But when tens of millions of people watch Biden self destruct live on stage, that’s a big deal (to both elites and everyday peoole).
No shit. The time for not backing Biden was in the last primary. If the Democrats weren’t so fucking short sighted and power hungry, they would have had a primary all of last year instead of now having to back this geriatric horse against a geriatric, racist, fascist, horse in this race.
That said, I’ll be voting for the geriatric horse because the alternative will end up getting my minority ass killed.
i’ve decided to turn around. i’m ridin with biden!
But but we want to retain our puppet so we are free to continue to run the government like a half drunken sailor.
A good candidate is the leader who maintains at the very least a perception of authority. Weakness is not a good look for a leader who can no longer fully appreciate the delicate intricacies a sound mind produces, age is the most vicious beast.
Democrats need a better candidate quickly because Biden will lose to power hungry Trump.
Biden just stepped down for elections
Yeah, just saw that on my news feed. While I applaud and massively respect him stepping down, it’s way late for this I’m my opinion, especially with this dragging out.
Democrats put themselves in a no win situation with this and while I’m still going to vote for not the geriatric, racist, fascist, cocaine addled horse, the rest of America probably won’t after Republicans tar the entire Democratic party as incompetent.
The way ili see it is., the “far left” crowd are demanding sparkling water and refuse to drink from the tap with everyone else-
And not only this, but they intend to destroy the tap so no one else can drink from it because it doesn’t provide what they feel they are entitled to. Regardless of what everyone else feels or wants.
And the irony is- they cry and whine about how America should be a socialist system, but feel that their needs should be met by the government, and don’t care about what everyone wants as a whole.
How does this rant in any way relate to this story? I’m getting really big “old man yells at cloud” vibes here.
How does it relate? How doesn’t it?
It’s obvious you haven’t taken even a moment to try to understand what the “far left” wants…
And as I’ve said before- I’m not talking about the legit FAR LEFT. I’ve no problem with them. I’m taking about the “far left.” By that I mean MAGA trolls that are here in bad faith to urge people not to vote I. Support of Trump.
There’s a HUGE difference.
Dudes mixed up his left and right…
People calling themselves left while being right isn’t mixing things up. It’s just knowing better.
it’s being a moron.
Newsom/Kelly 2024
Go big or go home.
Goin home see ya
Later 👍
I think JD Vance is representative of where the moneyed interests are right now in regards to the election. They don’t like Trumpism, but they see the Democrats as weak and compromised by progressivism. As much as they don’t like Trumpism, they hate progressivism much more. Moneyed interests see that Biden is a weak candidate, that there’s not really another Democrat who’s stronger, and they want to distance themselves from progressivism as much as possible, so they’re going all in on Trump and just hoping they can get him and the Republicans to become less extreme and move nearer to the center.
I think Trump will win the election, with the support of these moneyed interests. However, I think they are taking a huge risk betting that Trump and the Republicans will moderate their politics. If they’re wrong, they might be about to unleash a monster they won’t be able to control. If Trump and the GOP generally do moderate, they will lose the support of the far right, who will feel betrayed and may react violently.
I don’t think moneyed interest give a shit about progressivism as a whole, but the “tax the rich” components of progressivism scare the bejesus out of them.
However, I think they are taking a huge risk betting that Trump and the Republicans will moderate their politics. If they’re wrong, they might be about to unleash a monster they won’t be able to control.
I agree. Oligarchs are playing with fire here. If we go full fascism, money won’t protect you from the violence of the state anymore. Your fortune 500 company, your mansions, your cars, your bank account, any and all can be seized to support the fascist regime. And if you protest, no matter how high your former social standing, you’ll get sent to a camp.
I don’t think moneyed interest give a shit about progressivism as a whole, but the “tax the rich” components of progressivism scare the bejesus out of them.
Yeah, that’s what I meant.
the “tax the rich” components of progressivism scare the bejesus out of them.
It’s not the “taxing” the rich that has them concerned. They see us sharpening our spoons.
No… They don’t even see us as shadows anymore. We barely make an impact. Attempts to fight back are crushed by a self regulating system of oppression and order. They may commit to performative acts that make the rich look like they know what’s going on but they couldn’t be bothered to care to think about if we are actually coming for them cause they are so detached from it all. Just look at the panic on their face anytime someone actually slips through the cracks and gets even near one of their yachts.
They only see the big game being over and not being able to buy whatever they want and do anything they feel like to make a buck.
They aren’t scared of us. Why should they be? Everything is designed to protect them.
Well hey, the roman empire had a pretty good run for a bit. Let’s roll the dice and see /s
In all seriousness I don’t know how America as a country can survive giving presidential authority to a insurrectionist figure head and open political pawn. There’s a point where you realise the political institutions do not and have not ever served your best interests and that sh*t always ends badly.
Honestly, I’ll vote for whomever is on the Democratic tricket. Normally, I would seek the highest quality to be at the top of the ticket. But the other ticket is Trump/Vance. So, yes, I will vote for the ticket that runs against Trump. I vote for a party and for policies. Not a person.
She ain’t wrong.
