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Ariadne (@ariadne@climatejustice.social)
climatejustice.socialAttached: 1 image
Don't want to admit we've blown handling the #ClimateCrisis? Just change the definition! In 2021, the official definition of more than 1.5 °C of #GlobalWarming changed, did you know that? Exceeding the #ParisAgreement no longer means "in any given year", but
"... the Paris agreement target was clarified in 2021 as being the middle of a 20-year period during which the average global temperature hits 1.5 °C above the average temperature between 1850 and 1900. “This data doesn’t mean that we have breached the lower 1.5 °C safety limit of the Paris agreement, because that will apply to the long term,” says Rogelj."
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02995-7
"Earth’s average 2023 temperature is now likely to reach 1.5 °C of warming - But to breach the Paris agreement’s limit, the heating must be sustained for many years."
"Earth is hurtling towards its average temperature rising by 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. One climate model suggests that the likelihood of reaching that threshold in 2023 is now 55%.
The 1.5 °C figure was a preferred maximum warming limit set by the United Nations in the landmark 2015 Paris agreement on climate change. Climate scientists use different models to make predictions. In Breaching the Paris limit requires a long-term trend of warming of 1.5 °C or more, but some research groups tracking average annual temperatures in isolation are already predicting 1.5 °C of warming this year. In May, a World Meteorological Organization report said that there was a 66% chance that the average annual temperature would breach 1.5 °C of warming between 2023 and 2027."
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #Klima #Klimakrise #Climate #Emissions #CO2 #WMO #COP28 #ClimateDiary
The key thing in there is the paper link. Basically we won’t breach the treaty number with a single year above 1.5C; it takes bringing the long term average abive that since its not too unlikely that we’ll see one year above, then some years below just because of how much natural variability is in the climate system
I think 1.5 will become average must quicker than anticipated. Same with sea ice not recovering.
Most effects of warming averages are positive feedback. They further accelerate warming. Melting permafrost, increased wildfires, and reduced sea ice all further increase heating.
The main cooling process I’m aware of, volcanic activity, occurs randomly, and isn’t tied to climate change. I don’t think wildfires get enough ash and soot high enough in the atmosphere to affect cooling like eruptions can.