Ok so here’s the rules

  • I just bet on red every time
  • I start with 1 dollar
  • every time I lose, I triple my previous bet
  • every time I win I restart

I’m going to simulate 10 games

  • Game 1 - Bet $1 Lose
  • Game 2 - Bet $3 Lose
  • Game 3 - Bet $9 Win $18
  • Game 4 - Bet $1 Lose
  • Game 5 - Bet $3 Lose
  • Game 6 - Bet $9 Win $18
  • Game 7 - Bet $1 Lose
  • Game 8 - Bet $3 Lose
  • Game 9 - Bet $9 Lose
  • Game 10 - Bet $18 Win $36

In this simulation I’m losing at a rate of 70%. In reality the lose rate is closer to 52%. I put in $54 but I’m walking away with $72, basically leaving the building with $18.

Another example. Let’s pretend I walk in with $100,000 to bet with. I lose my first 10 games and win the 11th.

  • 1 lose
  • 3 lose
  • 9 lose
  • 27 lose
  • 81 lose
  • 243 lose
  • 729 lose
  • 2187 lose
  • 6561 lose
  • 19683 lose
  • 59049 win $118098

$88573 spent out of pocket, $118098 won

Walk out with roughly $29525.

I get most casinos won’t let you be that high but it’s a pretty extreme example anyway, the likelyhood of losing 10/11 games on 48% odds is really unlikely.

So help me out here, what am I missing?

  • harrywrecker@kbin.social
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    6 months ago

    This is what is known in the betting industry as “chasing your losses” and is a warning sign of a problem gambler who requires an intervention.

  • rjthyen@lemm.ee
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    6 months ago

    I didn’t get through all the comments, but most of the top ones and haven’t yet seen the most basic casino check to stop these strategies is a table maximum. Same with doubling your bet each hand you lose at black jack, one bad run and you hit table max and you can’t raise your bet far enough

  • lyth@sh.itjust.works
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    6 months ago

    Congratulations, you’ve invented the Martingale betting system and are well on your way to becoming an adept probability theorist

    The short answer is that casinos account for this by changing the profit returns and the odds of making a profit at all so that catastrophic losses are much more likely

  • Scratch@sh.itjust.works
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    6 months ago

    This is the Martingale system, it will 100% work if you have infinite money and can bet infinite amounts.

    • A_A@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      You can’t have an infinite amount since past a certain mass it will collapse onto itself and create a black hole. (or other practical limits) So eventually you lose anyway.

    • teft@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      It won’t work on any table that has a 0 and/or 00. The reason those green numbers exist is to give the house an edge over high rollers who can sustain a martingale strategy.

  • bionicjoey@lemmy.ca
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    6 months ago

    The fundamental theorem of gambling is a mathematically proven fact which states that as long as the house has an edge, there is no betting strategy that has a positive long-term expected value.

  • Cokeser@feddit.de
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    6 months ago

    With the first rise of online casinos (pre 2010), a friend of mine thought he had rigged the system by more or less the same strategy. I think the usual approach is actually to double the bet.

    Well…in the end he won a debt of several 10k€ before he had to quit. This put a huge strain on his early adulthood.

  • amio@kbin.social
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    6 months ago

    Sure, it’s a strategy. It will lose you a lot of money and make some casino very happy, but it is that. Sounds like Martingale, Wikipedia has an article that explains why it doesn’t work.

  • kakes@sh.itjust.works
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    6 months ago

    From what I’ve heard, this is why American roulette tables add a double-zero. Without that, the probability does slightly tip in favour of this system.

  • jet@hackertalks.com
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    6 months ago

    Run your simulation to find The expected number of bets before you go bankrupt. That will be illuminating

  • earned_myself_a_gin@lemmynsfw.com
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    6 months ago

    Assuming you don’t have infinite money, and that there are limits at the table, this is a good example of a non-ergotic system, where the mean and the median diverge. Because the rules of the game you defined dictate that at some point, you run out of money and have to stop playing, the outcomes for the median dip below that of the lucky few, who win more than lose owing to random chance. This is a super cool concept in a lot of systems, not just gambling fwiw

    Check out https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3 or https://taylorpearson.me/ergodicity/

  • m0darn@lemmy.ca
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    6 months ago

    Another way of thinking about it is betting your entire bankroll for 99.9…% certainty that you will win $1.

    Say you go into the casino with $1000.

    Bet:

    $1 lose.
    $3 lose.
    $9 lose.
    $27 lose.
    $81 lose.
    $243 lose.
    $729 oh wait you can't bet that much, you only have $457 left. Dang, do you bet $457 or find another $272? 
    
    Bet $457 and you win $914! Congrats you're now only down $86!
    Or maybe you lost and are down $1000.
    
    Or maybe you scrounged up $272 so you could keep playing
    Bet 729 and lose. Now you're down $1272.
    Or
    Bet 729 and you win 1458. Pay back the $272 you borrowed from your buddy, you're still up $186. 
    You just bet $729 dollars for a %50 chance of winning $186.
    

    But what are the chances of getting 6 or 7 losses in a row? 1 in 64, or 128 respectively, actually worse because roulette wheels aren’t 50/50, they’re 18/19 (18 wins and 19 losses in 37 plays on average) or worse. So losing 6 times in a row will happen 1 in 54 plays, 7 losses is 1 in 106.

    Google says roulette wheels spin 55 times per hour so with your strategy you will lose your bank roll in about one hour assuming your starting bet is 0.1% of your bank roll.

    • AwkwardLookMonkeyPuppet@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      I tried the Martingale Strategy in my early 20’s, thinking I had invented a system that would actually beat the house. I was playing $1 roulette, and had a budget of $100. I did manage to win $400ish, and then I lost 12 times in a row. I busted on the 9th loss, and went back to betting $1 just to see how long it would take to win. I would have needed $4096 to stay in the positive, and I would have won $1 on that last bet.

  • JoBo@feddit.uk
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    6 months ago

    This isn’t exactly the same as the Martingale system (where you double the bet after a loss so that you end up winning the starting bet when your colour does finally come up) but it’s the same principle, just messier because you’re tripling so it’s harder to analyse (but you’ll go broke quicker).

    In principle, you will usually end up making a small profit while risking very big losses. And that’s why it doesn’t work. Either you run out of money for the next bet or you reach the house limit (which will almost always exist).

    If you go to a casino with an amount of money you are prepared to lose, it’s not the worst strategy (given that there are no good strategies with roulette). You will usually get a small win but you will sometimes get a big loss. You’ll end up down in the long run.

    • PopMyCop@iusearchlinux.fyi
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      6 months ago

      making a small profit

      Right, this is what people always gloss over to just say that eventually the bet will be too big to sustain. Even if you win repeatedly, the bets you make after 3 or 4 losses are vast in comparison the amount you’ll ‘gain’ per win. For the doubling (Martingale strategy), if your bet starts at $1, and you win $2 off of that, it doesn’t matter how much you are eventually betting, you’ll only make $1 for the whole cycle.

      The tripling helps for the profit angle, somewhat. I ran the numbers for total amount of times betting before a win for net win. I wish the formatting let me make tables, but oh well.

      Total Times Bet(bet amount): total of bet: net winning:

      1 (1) … 1 … 1

      2 (3) … 4 … 2

      3 (9) … 13 … 5

      4 (27) … 40 … 16

      5 (81) … 121 … 41

      6 (243) … 364 … 122

      7 (729) … 1093 … 365

      8 (2187) …3280 … 1094

      9 (6561) … 9841 … 3281

      10 (19683) … 29524… 9842

  • Melobol@lemmy.ml
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    6 months ago

    To make things worse, Vegas now have triple 0 roulette tables. Three zeros in a row. In the same place. Do not play Roulette if you want to win. The only bet in a casino isn’t to the casinos favor is on Craps and it’s called ODDS. But to get to able to play it you have to win against 1.41% house edge first. And it is capped about 10x or 5x of original bet.

    If you want to have the best odds against a casino that is hard work and not solid strategy. Counting cards can make money but honestly the amount of work it requires - you are better on the stock market or even in crypto.

    Do not gamble against the casino.

    The only reason to gambe is to have fun and safe risk with money you decided to spend and to never see again.

      • LKPU26@lemmy.ml
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        6 months ago

        The House will use multiple decks, I think up to 8 but I haven’t gambled for a few years, + the auto shuffler.

        They’ll usually deal about 1 decks worth of cards and then pass all cards through the shuffler.

        This means that you have to count 8 decks worth of cards, and they reset that before you can really get much of an advantage.