… some superstition about the “incumbent advantage.”
We probably agree overall but I’m compelled to point out: in political science, incumbency advantage is definitely not considered superstition. In fact it’s one of the strongest known electoral advantages, especially in US presidential elections.
If it were just throwing salt over the shoulder, we wouldn’t be able consistently verify the hypothesis with high p in double and triple blind studies across eras, cohorts, and sociopolitical strata.
TL;DR Agreed mostly, esp re: Duverger, BUT incumbency advantage is real. Carry on.
We probably agree overall but I’m compelled to point out: in political science, incumbency advantage is definitely not considered superstition. In fact it’s one of the strongest known electoral advantages, especially in US presidential elections.
If it were just throwing salt over the shoulder, we wouldn’t be able consistently verify the hypothesis with high p in double and triple blind studies across eras, cohorts, and sociopolitical strata.
TL;DR Agreed mostly, esp re: Duverger, BUT incumbency advantage is real. Carry on.