I think it is telling how difficult it can be to accurately predict based on polls and all other available data by how rare it is for a professional analyst to make an accurate prediction on something like a federal election 12 or 8 months away.
There were plenty of predictions that got the winner right, but the amount that accurately predicted the ~51/47 are much fewer and I believe the rarity is an indicator that accurate prediction is not as clear and straight forward as some may expect even with statistical training.
I think it is telling how difficult it can be to accurately predict based on polls and all other available data by how rare it is for a professional analyst to make an accurate prediction on something like a federal election 12 or 8 months away.
Really? What about 2020
Almost all correctly predicted a Biden win. We don’t need the precise number just the general lay of the land
There were plenty of predictions that got the winner right, but the amount that accurately predicted the ~51/47 are much fewer and I believe the rarity is an indicator that accurate prediction is not as clear and straight forward as some may expect even with statistical training.