For once, I just want Democrats to take a fucking bold brazen move. Seriously. This is why Democrats never control the narrative because they’re always too gun-shy to do the right thing and stand by their own beliefs.
Ditch the 81-year-old clearly suffering cognitive decline; run what would be a viral media frenzy that is an open convention and an American Idol contest for the American people.
Or fuck it: AOC will be old enough to be President this year. Even if she can’t get the nomination, she should start campaigning literally today until 2028, just like Trump does.
Small clarification, Nate is no longer part of 538. He got laid off by ABC out of nowhere a year or two ago. He does his own thing, 538 has a different person at the helm for the model (Morris).
Of course the Kremlin, and Israel as well as other state actors are; but the obvious question then becomes — what is the Biden campaign actually doing to offset that effect? They are losing the battle and time is running out.
I’ll be honest, Linkerbaan — and you may know this from our previous discussions — I can even see the high-stakes situation with Israel and not like it but understand why in the grand scheme of politics (AIPAC, Jewish American voters, and the risk of withholding arms and then a false-flag terrorist attack occurs on Israeli soil, only to cause an immediate end of Biden’s campaign and an installation of someone FAR more pro-genocide)… But nevertheless, your point raises something I think we can both agree on: Ditching Biden also helps, as Mehdi Hasan has pointed out, ditch the baggage of Israeli genocide complicity.
I don’t believe witholding offensive weapons would risk anything.
I agree with you about AIPAC. But playing their corrupt games does not excuse anything. If Biden wanted he could ban AIPAC.
It’s like people are admitting that israel controls America and are just fine with it. I’ll never understand it.
Progressives don’t differ between Biden or Trump. Genocide is Genocide. Biden is getting all the flak simply because he’s in power right now and he’s the one who can stop the Genocide. It would be very convenient if Trump was in power for Democrats right now. Everyone would rally against Trump for doing what Biden is doing now.
The moment Biden stops the Genocide is when I’ll stop dunking on him every 5 seconds. I’ve stated that… Eight months ago… Sad reality.
Fear and Hatred run the Republican Party, and unites them.
You have idiot outliers like the Log Cabin republicans who, for whatever fucked up reason (its money. its always money) chose to align themselves, and you’ll have the occasional group break away briefly from the groupthink.
But when it comes to the polls, they are a pretty unified bloc.
Yes, beset by a mountain of conflicting interests and decades of infighting and ideological purity testing. Most Democrats are terrified of taking stances on wedge issues because any stance they take could break up a coalition that has all the durability of a Faberge egg. Republicans either don’t have this problem, or they don’t have it as bad. Despite having as many if not more factions than the Left, they all value loyalty and in-group cohesion, which allows them to come together every 4 years to form a unified voting bloc.
While I understand what you mean, we also have to recognize that doing that would 100% give trump the election. Splitting the votes is not what we want to do.
With all due respect if we’re speaking in terms of certainty, I am 100% certain that Biden will give Trump the election—and I guarantee I have more evidence to support that statement than anyone does to the opposite conclusion. Staying this course is a disaster in slow-motion. The Titanic already hit the iceberg and now we’re just sinking for 4 months straight. We either jump ship now, or we are going to lose, or we start gearing up for 2028 now.
I completely disagree. While the debate felt disastrous, there is ample evidence that a not insignificant amount of swing voters either saw past the old man voice to what he was actually saying and standing for, as well as recognized how badly Trump did, even though literally everyone only focuses on Biden, just like always.
The worst possible thing we can do right now is just jump ship this close to an election. Biden has one bad debate, and is fine the day after(another thing people conveniently love to ignore) and we’re just supposed to restart. What if the new candidate does poorly at the second debate? We just pick another person again?
Biden beat Trump last time. Trump has only grown weaker and lost support, while Biden has been extremely successful. Everyone is upset about the debate performance, but it will not be even close to as impactful as people are convincing themselves it will be.
Before going forward, let me be clear: I want to be convinced that we’re not fucked. I really do. The past three days I’ve gone into detail about how I think we’re fucked and looking for anyone to make a sound, data-driven argument that shows we are not. I’ve yet to be convinced by one, and bear in mind I voted for Biden once and would vote for a corpse if it meant preventing the convicted felon getting keys to the WH again.
There is ample evidence that a not insignificant amount of swing voters either saw past the old man voice to what he was actually saying and standing for, as well as recognized how badly Trump did, even though literally everyone only focuses on Biden, just like always.
Please show me these! Because these are all the surveys I’ve so far seen:
To me I view it as a known loss versus a known risky chance. At this point, personally and given all the data I’ve thus far presented, I am that convinced that we will lose. Polling shows people deeply unsatisfied with the current candidate. I think critical swing-state voters would just be happy to vote for a fresh face that is younger. Like Mehdi Hasan said, “Americans like new shit.”
So I don’t know how how you can say with a straight face that Biden is more successful while simultaneously dodging the obvious fact that there is a significant decline in physical and cognitive performance. So let’s recap:
We can downplay all we want, but this wasn’t “one bad debate,” for it wasn’t even about the debat eitself but the revelation of Biden’s senility piercing through echo-chambers. For the exact same reason Biden ASKED for this debate to reach important voters and show he’s mentally fit (akin to the SOTU) and show Trump is not, it backfired 100% and there will not be another chance to reach 50 million voters at prime-tme. Trump has no obligation to take another debate; ending on that note is all that is needed.
Biden took this debate because he is currently losing and needed to break the stagnant, steadily-declining polls.
Biden’s performance is worse than his 2020 run and in fact, worse than Hillary’s losing run in 2016 by every single metric I can find.
There is a MASSIVE amount of risk that Biden’s condition deteriorates more rapidly between now and November, and following the convention there is no more backing out.
If I was a Republican strategist, I’d be doing everything in my power to keep Biden in the race because I know he’d be the weakest opponent compared to a fresh, younger face. Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, even former Obama/Biden staffers from PSA clearly agree.
Now if you agree with this and you say, “okay I see your points, but how can anyone else do better?” then we’ll move on to that.
For once, I just want Democrats to take a fucking bold brazen move. Seriously. This is why Democrats never control the narrative because they’re always too gun-shy to do the right thing and stand by their own beliefs.
Ditch the 81-year-old clearly suffering cognitive decline; run what would be a viral media frenzy that is an open convention and an American Idol contest for the American people.
Or fuck it: AOC will be old enough to be President this year. Even if she can’t get the nomination, she should start campaigning literally today until 2028, just like Trump does.
Small clarification, Nate is no longer part of 538. He got laid off by ABC out of nowhere a year or two ago. He does his own thing, 538 has a different person at the helm for the model (Morris).
Thanks for that clarification. I was trying to reconcile the differences between the models and couldn’t even find info in the Wikipedia article.
No worries happy to help
This is all easily remedied. Biden just needs to put out a bounty on Trump’s head. Totally legal move.
Yep, totally official move of the president covered by immunity, if I’m reading the Court right!
It’s what Trump’s lawyers specifically argued for. It’s not a hypothetical or exaggeration at all.
Keep in mind that kremlin still runs massive campaigns to make you think Biden will loose and is unable to run the country.
But he is not alone, this is not a monarchy, there is a full team behind him to make great things for the country.
Of course the Kremlin, and Israel as well as other state actors are; but the obvious question then becomes — what is the Biden campaign actually doing to offset that effect? They are losing the battle and time is running out.
They are not gun shy. This is all theater. Every time you hear a massive lie or act you are supposed to believe that it is just incompetence.
When Biden wanted those weapons to israel to commit Genocide all these principles went out of the window.
I’ll be honest, Linkerbaan — and you may know this from our previous discussions — I can even see the high-stakes situation with Israel and not like it but understand why in the grand scheme of politics (AIPAC, Jewish American voters, and the risk of withholding arms and then a false-flag terrorist attack occurs on Israeli soil, only to cause an immediate end of Biden’s campaign and an installation of someone FAR more pro-genocide)… But nevertheless, your point raises something I think we can both agree on: Ditching Biden also helps, as Mehdi Hasan has pointed out, ditch the baggage of Israeli genocide complicity.
I don’t believe witholding offensive weapons would risk anything.
I agree with you about AIPAC. But playing their corrupt games does not excuse anything. If Biden wanted he could ban AIPAC.
It’s like people are admitting that israel controls America and are just fine with it. I’ll never understand it.
Progressives don’t differ between Biden or Trump. Genocide is Genocide. Biden is getting all the flak simply because he’s in power right now and he’s the one who can stop the Genocide. It would be very convenient if Trump was in power for Democrats right now. Everyone would rally against Trump for doing what Biden is doing now.
The moment Biden stops the Genocide is when I’ll stop dunking on him every 5 seconds. I’ve stated that… Eight months ago… Sad reality.
Cause democrats are not a unified faction.
Democrats are basically 15 different political parties shoved under the same umbrella.
You’re not wrong, but so are Republicans. That’s the nature of a 2-party system and why it basically doesn’t work.
Yes and no.
Fear and Hatred run the Republican Party, and unites them.
You have idiot outliers like the Log Cabin republicans who, for whatever fucked up reason (its money. its always money) chose to align themselves, and you’ll have the occasional group break away briefly from the groupthink.
But when it comes to the polls, they are a pretty unified bloc.
Yes, beset by a mountain of conflicting interests and decades of infighting and ideological purity testing. Most Democrats are terrified of taking stances on wedge issues because any stance they take could break up a coalition that has all the durability of a Faberge egg. Republicans either don’t have this problem, or they don’t have it as bad. Despite having as many if not more factions than the Left, they all value loyalty and in-group cohesion, which allows them to come together every 4 years to form a unified voting bloc.
15 factions = mostly AIPAC recipients.
That lobby group primarily funded by Republicans.
While I understand what you mean, we also have to recognize that doing that would 100% give trump the election. Splitting the votes is not what we want to do.
We are 100% giving Trump the election now on our present course. Biden is Hillary with worse numbers.
With all due respect if we’re speaking in terms of certainty, I am 100% certain that Biden will give Trump the election—and I guarantee I have more evidence to support that statement than anyone does to the opposite conclusion. Staying this course is a disaster in slow-motion. The Titanic already hit the iceberg and now we’re just sinking for 4 months straight. We either jump ship now, or we are going to lose, or we start gearing up for 2028 now.
I completely disagree. While the debate felt disastrous, there is ample evidence that a not insignificant amount of swing voters either saw past the old man voice to what he was actually saying and standing for, as well as recognized how badly Trump did, even though literally everyone only focuses on Biden, just like always.
The worst possible thing we can do right now is just jump ship this close to an election. Biden has one bad debate, and is fine the day after(another thing people conveniently love to ignore) and we’re just supposed to restart. What if the new candidate does poorly at the second debate? We just pick another person again?
Biden beat Trump last time. Trump has only grown weaker and lost support, while Biden has been extremely successful. Everyone is upset about the debate performance, but it will not be even close to as impactful as people are convincing themselves it will be.
You understand that is so far removed from reality it might as well be a Fox headline.
Before going forward, let me be clear: I want to be convinced that we’re not fucked. I really do. The past three days I’ve gone into detail about how I think we’re fucked and looking for anyone to make a sound, data-driven argument that shows we are not. I’ve yet to be convinced by one, and bear in mind I voted for Biden once and would vote for a corpse if it meant preventing the convicted felon getting keys to the WH again.
Please show me these! Because these are all the surveys I’ve so far seen:
Post-Debate: “72 Percent Say Biden Unfit Mentally, Cognitively.”
Post-Debate: “64% of Independents want Biden replaced on the ballot”; that’s more than they want Trump replaced on the ballot by 1%, by the way.
Post-Debate: “Voters think Harris is more fit than Biden to run the country”
Post-Debate: “Swing state voters react to presidential debate, Biden’s weak performance”
Post-Debate Focus Group: “Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate”
Post-Debate Focus Group 2/Reuters: “‘I am absolutely voting for Donald Trump’: Undecided voters react to Biden’s debate performance”
Post-Debate USAToday/Suffolk Poll: “Republican Donald Trump has edged ahead of Democrat Joe Biden, 41% to 38%, in the aftermath of the candidates’ rancorous debate last week”
Let’s face reality:
To me I view it as a known loss versus a known risky chance. At this point, personally and given all the data I’ve thus far presented, I am that convinced that we will lose. Polling shows people deeply unsatisfied with the current candidate. I think critical swing-state voters would just be happy to vote for a fresh face that is younger. Like Mehdi Hasan said, “Americans like new shit.”
So I don’t know how how you can say with a straight face that Biden is more successful while simultaneously dodging the obvious fact that there is a significant decline in physical and cognitive performance. So let’s recap:
We can downplay all we want, but this wasn’t “one bad debate,” for it wasn’t even about the debat eitself but the revelation of Biden’s senility piercing through echo-chambers. For the exact same reason Biden ASKED for this debate to reach important voters and show he’s mentally fit (akin to the SOTU) and show Trump is not, it backfired 100% and there will not be another chance to reach 50 million voters at prime-tme. Trump has no obligation to take another debate; ending on that note is all that is needed.
If I was a Republican strategist, I’d be doing everything in my power to keep Biden in the race because I know he’d be the weakest opponent compared to a fresh, younger face. Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, even former Obama/Biden staffers from PSA clearly agree.
Now if you agree with this and you say, “okay I see your points, but how can anyone else do better?” then we’ll move on to that.
TBF, It’s difficult to copy-paste MSNBC talking points about why Biden should stay in the race.