- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- news@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- news@lemmy.world
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As much as I want this to be true, this is straight up misinformation at this moment.
The poll they are referencing is this one: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (Archive link)
Under “In this tracker”
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Trump maintains lead: Trump continues to lead Biden by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%, unchanged from the previous week and superior to his standing in the lead-up to the first 2024 presidential debate, when the candidates were tied. The latest data was collected Friday through Sunday, meaning most responses were gathered before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
I don’t see any polls listed out here either that have been able to do a complete poll since the assassination attempt:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
It’s also strange that the number of participants doesn’t match up. Newsweek says 2,045 but your link says 2,203. Of course we would know what the issue is if they left a link to the poll rather than a vague description.
It seems like you’re right though and this is bullshit.
I’m sure the hypothetical live view of the Trump polling ticker went WAY UP for about 12 hours. Then it was revealed the shooter was conservative and that trend line shot at a vertical downward towards baseline.
lol the people shielding him with their bodies, choosing to die for him, would be among the first to get fired if he were to win. along with every other single secret service in charge of the event that day
You mean the media and pundits were wrong? Shocker.
Polls are bullshit anyway.
Polls have been remarkably accurate in the last few election cycles.
The “polls are wrong” talking point is a convenient way for politicians to ignore the will of the people. Trump has done this for a long time, and recently Biden has taken up this practice to pretend that the “Real Americans” think he is fit to be president for another 4 years.
So please don’t repeat this talking point, or at least read a bit into historical accuracy of polls before you declare them bullshit.
Guess I’m being overly optimistic thinking that Trump would be supported at all, let alone have a lead. Regardless of how shit a candidate Biden is, Trump is a fucking disgrace and a criminal among a whole other list of garbage. Appreciate you taking the time to call out my random comment on Lemmy.
Polls being wrong claim is more about how election results seem to be different than poll results. Special elections points to that.
Polls have a margin of error and election results have generally been within the 80% confidence interval 80% of the time.
It is true that when there are less polls (like in special elections) it’s harder to get an understanding of the state of the race.
Because it doesn’t change anything.
It’s reassuring if true, but Newsweek are a right-wing disinformation source. Perhaps they’re reporting this straight, or perhaps this is disinformation aimed at a specific goal. In any case, nothing from them should be taken at face value unless verified from a reputable source.
It is disinformation. The data from the poll they are referencing was mostly completed before the assassination attempt: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (Archive Link)
The latest data was collected Friday through Sunday, meaning most responses were gathered before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
Huh, I had assumed Newsweek was mostly left, but it looks like you’re correct:
Bias Rating: RIGHT-CENTER
Factual Reporting: MOSTLY FACTUAL
Country: USA
MBFC’s Country Freedom Rating: MOSTLY FREE
Media Type: Magazine
Traffic/Popularity: High Traffic
MBFC Credibility Rating: HIGH CREDIBILITYI haven’t read it in over a decade though…
FWIW, I had a subscription over a decade ago. I can’t say I ever thought of it as “Left”, it was at best, corporate center. But it definitely has gone more right as it has also gone more sensationalist. They partnered with Daily Beast for a while, and then were sold to IBT media, an international “news and Information” conglomerate. I think your memories are from the old hard journalism days, and they have gone back to corporate, but corporate-right.
I could have sworn previously that maggot chuds used to call it NewsWeak. Guess new ownership had different plans
Yeah I member when newsweek would find an excuse to put Jesus’ face on the cover ever other week.
Wow, yeah. I thought Newsweek was a staunchly centrist organization.
Not shilling for them but I like ground news for the bias ratings.
The ground premise is interesting and all my lefty podcasts have offer codes. I’ve been thinking about giving them a try
You can assume a right-center bias for almost any outlet, and I think mediabiasfactcheck needs to recalibrate, if we are being honest. See their assessment of NYT, as a for instance.
I’m guessing it’s too early for polls to actually tell. It comes around the same time as the RNC, so even if his numbers go up, it may be hard to tell what is responsible
He did get a rousing endorsement from the Nashville Nazis tho which is all he ever wanted.
We need to worry about motivation, not polls. Very few people will change their minds about the candidates, but many of them will change their minds about voting. Some percentage of likely voters will always stay home. That percentage is going to be much lower for people whose candidate survived an assassination attempt.
Because literally, more than half the country wishes he didn’t miss.
And exactly half of Tenacious D, apparently
Wait, what?
Rage Kage said something dumb about it and now Jaybles doesn’t want to work with him anymore
KG solo tour when
I don’t think that’s what went down, I think they’re just doing PR damage control behind closed doors. I don’t think this has actually effected their relationship. Jack Black is definitely not a supporter of trump at least.
Damn that’s sad
Damn, I didn’t know Jack Black was a piece of shit like that.
Jablinski is a piece of shit for trying to maintain their PR by denouncing a statement that could be interpreted as a call to violence?
“trump is literally the next Hitler guys”
“great so we don’t even need a time machine”
“oh not like that though”
👀
Look I’m not saying that it’s a good thing that the shot missed. I’m just saying that it’s understandable how someone might want to not say the quiet part out loud when it doesn’t make a tangible difference on who ends up being president come January, but does make a tangible difference on how much money they make.
Publicly calling for violence against the man who might be a dictator of the country you live in this time next year isn’t exactly the safest play either, long-term.
We need to keep Trump out of the white house, but advocating for that “by any means necessary” is a dangerous play, no matter how much you personally agree with the people making such statements.
Polls are extra meaningless this election. No one is undecided between the Toupee and Biden. If there’s any indecision on either side, it’s between voting for the party’s nominee or not voting in the presidential election.
Which is why it continues to baffle that the Democratic campaign strategy has been mostly if not entirely “I’m not quite as bad as the Other Guy!”
I believe, in this election, with two unfavorable candidates, everything is already baked in. There’s very little to move the needle at this point.
Biden screws the pooch during a debate? Polls still show him leading by a point or two, but within the margin of error. Trump gets nearly assassinated? Same, Biden leading by a not statistically significant number.
This election is going to be a squeaker, and we’re going to see unrest either way. We need a blowout to avoid that, and it’s not happening.
Edit: last poll I read had Biden leading. Either way doesn’t change what I said.
Unfortunately I see a 0% chance of Biden winning…
Democrats need polls to be overwhelmingly in their favor for us to just squeeze by. Being as low as we are should be taken as “we’re like 6x worse than what polls currently show.”
Is Biden shown leading? I only see doom and gloom posted here. Agreed on the need for a blowout, though. We need to show the world we categorically denounce the far right, and that looks unlikely even if Biden wins.
Biden is absolutely not leading. State polling has him behind in every swing state. Nate Silver’s model gives Biden a 30% chance of winning, slightly down from the debate.
Newsweek believes that everything is going swimmingly well for Biden without fail. Don’t rely on others to keep Trump out of office for you, everything is not OK.
A Bible minute, for your Christian friends who might be voting for Trump.
Revelation 13 "The dragon stood on the shore of the sea. And I saw a beast coming out of the sea. It had ten horns and seven heads, with ten crowns on its horns, and on each head a blasphemous name. The beast I saw resembled a leopard, but had feet like those of a bear and a mouth like that of a lion. The dragon gave the beast his power and his throne and great authority.
One of the heads of the beast seemed to have had a fatal wound, but the fatal wound had been healed. The whole world was filled with wonder and followed the beast. People worshiped the dragon because he had given authority to the beast, and they also worshiped the beast and asked, “Who is like the beast? Who can wage war against it?”
The beast was given a mouth to utter proud words and blasphemies and to exercise its authority for forty-two months [or three and a half years…my note]."
(I am not saying this is some prophecy fulfilling event. I’m just saying if your friends are voting for Trump and they’re Christians, perhaps this scripture might cause them to think twice before voting for the Antichrist. Just might want to mention it to them.)
iirc there was something about plagues of locusts in there too. The big chungus locusts are extinct (and fuck 'em) but this year is the height of the 17 year cicada breeding cycle.
We just had an attack of Mormon crickets out west too
I gotta tell you, as a guy who was deeply in this muck, they give ZERO shits what the Bible says. I wouldn’t bother with engaging in the theology.
What got you out of it?
I started to interpret ‘‘love one another’’ as mutually exclusive to ‘‘fuck them kids’’. Also my kid isn’t heteronormative, and she still wanted to do youth activity stuff, the other kids were great to her, also a lot of them aren’t heteronormative either, but she’s old enough and out enough that it’s REALLY obvious to the adults, and she went to one activity and the local leader guy called us with just WILD ass accusations, but it’s a small town, and there’s less than 3 degrees of separation from any random person, so my mom found the kid this accusation was about, and that kid 1. Didn’t remember who my kid was the day after the thing and 2. Had no idea what the leader was saying, and we really realized that our kid can’t be around these fucking psychopaths that think ‘‘liars will be thrust to hell’’ is more a gentle suggestion than a commandment, and ‘‘fuck them kids’’ is an acceptable life motto to stitch onto a pillow.
Probably the same thing that got most of us out of it. Actually reading the bible.
Deep down, a lot them seem to be just fine with accelerating/bringing about the supposed eschaton. Look at the way they stroke off to Israel.
True, but they’ve GOTTA be uncomfortable telling God they voted for Satan.
This is a fun read if you haven’t seen it. It hasn’t been updated since before the 2020 election. It’s a wild ride…
We REALLY need the part 2 of that
Excellent read.
He should just get convicted again. That worked out well for him the last time.
