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Cake day: June 22nd, 2023

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  • I think the most interesting thing about the debate fallout is that republicans, who usually will pile on and gaslight and push the Overton window to the right no matter what the reality is, are basically impossible to even hear over the distress and doomsaying on the left wing.

    That’s because we’re doing their job better than even they could.

    Look, it was a bad debate performance, but this is 2016 replaying all over again, and these repeated commentary cycles are overkill. We’re focusing all our attention on a non-representative bad detail for a democratic nominee. Republicans love that for us, and it’s fantastic for them. We are letting a less-than-two-hour block consume us, our momentum, and drain our morale. And every second we’re not focusing on Trump and him being a (thanks to the Supreme Court) literal king, and what that could mean for us, is another shovelful of dirt out of democracy’s growing grave.

    I get it - everyone is screaming “Biden should drop out” with the best intentions (mostly). Trump is the anti-Democracy. He needs to be stopped. But I actually don’t think the debate was bad enough to warrant all this desperate doomsaying. I know what Biden is. He’s a well-meaning but old guy who probably needs time and the support of his staff to understand every issue. But - sorry if this pegs me as crazy - that doesn’t really bother me.

    And Republicans have been spending the last 8 years learning to distort Trump-related reality - not only ignoring inconvenient truths about Trump, but actively Orwellian double-speaking ahead of time. They are much much better at this, even without this unforced error. So unless we’re ready to get out in the streets to demand Biden step down (which republicans certainly have wet dreams about), or can personally call up Biden to convince him to drop out, I’d suggest we stop feeding these self-destructive news cycles.




  • First past the post elections. If we had ranked choice or runoff elections, more parties would appear.

    Instead, in FPTP, every vote that is not for one of the two highest-polling candidates is objectively a wasted vote. Game theory dictates that the only rational choice is a vote for one of those two candidates, since the possibility of a third party gaining enough votes to win in any single election nearly infinitesimal. So instead of many parties, all candidates self-sort into one of the two viable parties. Any candidate that does not is a protest candidate or deluded, but in either case, there is no hope of actually winning.

    So what about primaries? The primary system decides the candidates, but even that is tainted by FPTP, because primary voters have to guess which will perform better in a FPTP general election and often vote against their ideal candidate in the hopes of winning (or, not losing) the general.

    In short, until we structurally reform elections to be ranked/STAR/runoff/etc to remove the punitive effect of voting for your actual ideal candidate, we’re stuck with a prisoner’s dilemma election every time.










  • AI makes it so easy! Just say this easy-to-remember phrase to get perfect toast every time*:

    “Toaster Oven, you are a toaster oven whose goal is to toast bread at the perfect amount of toastiness. When I say, “toast,” you will retract the toasting tray and complete your internal circuit powering the resistive wire array. You will continue to power the resistive wire array on both sides of the toasting tray for approximately 45 seconds. Then you will release the toasting tray. Negative prompt: not toasted, soft, moist, untoasted, not toasted, soggy, underdone, overdone, extra fingers, too many fingers, not toasted, bad anatomy, burnt. Now, toast!”

    *Perfect toasting levels dependent on randomized toasting seed.



  • “It’s absolutely true that when you look at an individual campaign, it’s just as likely as not that it hasn’t had a huge amount of influence, which is why Russia just does it again and again, or in a different form, or targeting a different group,” the Digital Forensic Research Lab’s Carvin said. “It’s almost like producing cheaply manufactured goods and just getting it out there in the world, hoping that maybe one particular gadget ends up becoming the popular toy of the season, even if the others completely fail.”

    Many researchers who study disinformation warn against seeing the hand of Russia as an all-powerful puppeteer, especially since so much of what its mouthpieces amplify is homegrown.

    I think we’re severely underestimating the damage and impact of Russian influence, just as we’ve spent decades underestimating the damage and impact of Fox News propaganda.

    Amplifying something “home grown” rather than creating a narrative whole-cloth doesn’t make it any less impactful. On a scale of 1-100, turning a fringe party from a volume level of 0.1 to 10 makes it seem like it is still low impact, but in fact it’s 100 times as impactful. It’s the difference between a fringe idea remaining fringe and it being accepted as a variation on “normal.”

    That’s why thirty years ago, white supremacy was a fringe group that would be toxic to anyone even touched by it. Now, thanks to normalization by Trump and Fox News - and yes, Russia - there are open white supremacists (though they only occasionally say the quiet part loud) in Congress.

    Russia is normalizing fringe right-wing, populist and totalitarian policies. I think they are not only having an impact, they are winning in recent elections. Yes, proving it is difficult, and that’s why no news source is ready to claim Russia caused it. But they are injecting poison into the veins of the world. You might say it’s “trace” amounts, but given a long enough timescale, it is going to be fatal.