- cross-posted to:
- newzealand@lemmy.nz
- cross-posted to:
- newzealand@lemmy.nz
Gap between left and right blocks has opened up, but NZ first seems likely to make it to parliament, which could make coalition negotiations interesting.
Labour is the big loser, and they should be asking serious questions about their campaign. Most of the other parties are fairly stable, with departing Labour voters seemingly moving fairly evenly among the other major parties.
The right’s lead over the left is around 5 points, which is decent but not unassailable, especially factoring standard levels of polling error. i.e. based on these numbers, a left-bloc win is probably just outside the standard margin of error. But larger errors are entirely possible, and have happened before.
I also think there’s a possibility of undecided voters breaking left, given that cost of living is such an important issue, and National are releasing some more right-oriented policies lately (e.g. tough on beneficiaries).
Smart money is obviously on a National/Act win (with or without NZ first), but it’s by no means a foregone conclusion.
Just my reckons of course…
Is it immoral to vote for NZ First just to see the chaos?
Like this?
That is so incredibly relavent, it’s hard to believe it wasn’t created specifically for this election 😅
Yeah, I think it got posted in reference to Trump winning in 2016. So I guess it applies well to politics in general 🤣
Save it for the ‘i told you so’ election in 4 years time?
Do you want a Trump? Because this is how you get a Trump.
Given all three are competing for cruelest beneficiary policy my view would be yes
Nope. Destabilising the incumbents is a moral duty.
I did exactly this a couple of elections ago, I forget which.
There could be some strategic voting for National to keep NZ First out of government, similar to the last election when more people voted for Labour to keep the Greens out.
There could be, although there’s not much evidence that in 2020 people who would have voted National strategically voted for Labour to keep the Greens out (at least in large enough numbers to matter). The media latched onto that as an interesting narrative, but there was no basis to it.
As a left-leaning numbskull I’m struggling between conscience and strategy votes this time - I hate it all.
Strategy shouldn’t be much of an issue… If National are in govt, ACT will be as well… in 2020 Labour had the chance of (and eventually did) govern alone, so a strategic vote for Labour by right-wing people could make sense. It doesn’t really make much sense in this election. Sure, ACT could end up a bit smaller if enough people did it, but it’s not likely to make much difference in coalition negotiations.
One of the big advantages of MMP is that you don’t need to vote strategically so much (for party vote at least). So just vote for the party you like the most - the only consideration is whether they might make it across the threshold.
Thanks, but there’s no way I’d vote NAct, it’s more whether top would make it >5%, or should I support labour so they can keep fucking up around the margins…
I have big issues with each party, presently
Ah right, fair enough. Yeah, TOP probably pretty unlikely to get over 5% or win an electorate. But if you really don’t like any of the other parties, it’s still worth voting for them.