Assuming you meant “historical”, then these two years of data imply that ~5% of congress members beat the S&P500 per year, and not the same people every year… which seems statistically insignificant.
Yep, people make a big thing out of it and maybe the proportion of them that beat SPY is higher than the proportion of random investors that do it, but there’s no good way to say 🤷
Thanks! This completly debunks the insider trade myth. You would expect a Gaussian distribution around the mean, which would be a market neutral index. And you get even a slightly to the left shifted Gaussian bell curve.
Assuming you meant “historical”, then these two years of data imply that ~5% of congress members beat the S&P500 per year, and not the same people every year… which seems statistically insignificant.
I don’t know what happened with my auto correct on that word as I think I meant to say “only” 🤔
Ah, well there you go then… 25ish people out of 535?
Again, it’d be worrying if the same people were consistently ahead of the market… but that would also be super obvious.
Yep, people make a big thing out of it and maybe the proportion of them that beat SPY is higher than the proportion of random investors that do it, but there’s no good way to say 🤷
Thanks! This completly debunks the insider trade myth. You would expect a Gaussian distribution around the mean, which would be a market neutral index. And you get even a slightly to the left shifted Gaussian bell curve.