Okay, so by your logic the probability of literally everything is 1. That’s absurd and that’s not how Laplace’s law of succession is supposed to be applied. The point I’m trying to make is that some things are literally impossible, you can’t just hand-wave that!
And I’m not saying that solving hallucinations is impossible! What I’m saying that it could be impossible and am criticizing your blind faith in progress because you just believe the probability is literally 1. I can’t say, for sure, that it’s impossible. At the same time you can’t say, for sure, that it is possible. You can’t just assume the problem will inevitably be fixed, otherwise you’ve talked yourself into a cult.
You do not know that it is nonzero, that’s just an assumption you made up.
Also, Laplace’s law of succession necessarily implies that, over an infinite number of attempts and as long as there is a possibility of success, the probability that the next attempt results in success approaches 1.
Okay, so by your logic the probability of literally everything is 1. That’s absurd and that’s not how Laplace’s law of succession is supposed to be applied. The point I’m trying to make is that some things are literally impossible, you can’t just hand-wave that!
And I’m not saying that solving hallucinations is impossible! What I’m saying that it could be impossible and am criticizing your blind faith in progress because you just believe the probability is literally 1. I can’t say, for sure, that it’s impossible. At the same time you can’t say, for sure, that it is possible. You can’t just assume the problem will inevitably be fixed, otherwise you’ve talked yourself into a cult.
I’m not saying the probability of literally everything is 1. I am saying nonzero. 0.00003 is not 1 nor 0.
I am not assuming the problem will inevitably be fixed. I think 0.5 is a reasonable p for most.
You do not know that it is nonzero, that’s just an assumption you made up.
Also, Laplace’s law of succession necessarily implies that, over an infinite number of attempts and as long as there is a possibility of success, the probability that the next attempt results in success approaches 1.