Today is an all time high on slightly right leaning RCP, and a slight rebound on 538(But not to 12th/13th/15th levels). More like 16th or 11th evening. RCP tends to lag a bit on D rises and vice versa for 538 so we’ll see. Still suggests the overall strong growth trend passed and we’re nearing a ceiling. Not a bad ceiling, a winning ceiling, but it’s there.
Canadian, not my fight. Our liberals ain’t doing so good
Before anyone starts getting a bit too high off their own supply Harris’s polling averages peaked on August 12th. They were stagnant or declining on the 13th and 14th, briefly spiked on the 15th, and that spike was completely undone on the 16th. Today is dropping again. Not big drops, like 1/10th of a point every other day(which day depends on which conglomerates you use), but the growth trend is over.
Decided to check since people said Trump was scrambling for endorsements. No former president or former vice president alive supports him. Most of the failed candidates for both don’t either(Romney, Ryan). Sarah Palin is the only VP Candidate willing to back him.
Ehhhh. Where does CPR lean? The fact that Nevada is 3 points red and North Carolina is more blue than Georgia is…odd. Right leaning polls tend to show Nevada as really close, centrist polls too, I get it has a small sample size, but that’s odd. Also NC turning while Georgia holds is weird, the trends are similar in both states, but Georgia was blue-er last time.
In terms of the averages Georgia is still red, and this solidifies Nevada. NC has too many other red polls for this to change that. Does push Arizona into dead even or lean blue average and Pennsylvania solidly into lean blue.
r/politics told me to go here for image posts
For a quick TL:DR on each.
The Libertarians were founded in 1971, initially stuck to a pretty core Randian Libertarian message albeit gradually weaning off the hard AnCap stance. Then they tilted right for a bit in the 90s to take advantage of the disgruntled Republican bloc, then tilted left during Y2K as the Reform Party turned right, but tilted hard right during the Tea Party era and later Trump Era, ultimately culminating in a Party Civil War in 2022 which saw a hard right Trump faction take over the party, followed by a counter takeover by a Moderate and Leftist faction, leading to the hard rights abandoning the party on mass for the GOP and the Moderates trying to go for RFK, but they’ve been kept in line by Chase Oliver’s left leaning faction who are currently nominated. They have been the strongest third party since around 2006, though they’ve collapsed in the polls following internal conflict this year.
The USA Green Party was founded in 1991(though the current version broke away in 2001 and the remnant faction died off in 2019) as a mostly environmentalist and progressive party. After some initial issues with the Natural Law Party they surged in 2000 taking advantage of a right wing takeover of the Reform Party, under the leadership of Ralph Nader. Following Ralph leaving briefly in 2004 for the Reforms combined with Obama rising the Green Party nearly collapsed in the late 2000s, but since then the modern Green Party has mostly consolidated under the tight control of Jill Stein, who has been the dominant figure in the party since 2011. It’s very much her party as seen by the bad under performance in 2020 when she didn’t run. They were briefly the Number 1 third party in the early-mid 2000s and have been solidly Top 2 for their entire existence. They’re set to outpreform the Libertarians for the first time in 20 years this year, though their future is iffy with Jill’s coming retirement and the soaring PSL cutting into their base.
The Constitution Party was founded in 1990(As the Taxpayer Party), as part of a broader wave of Right Wing dissatisfaction with the GOP following Bush breaking his ‘Read My Lips’ promise. While initially working together, the Reform Party faction and Constitution Party factions broke up in 1992. They believe in Christian Nationalism, Hardline Constitutionism, and were the dominant party of the Tea Party bloc. While traditionally considered part of the Big 3, both because they almost always come Third Place and because they can consistently run their own primaries and get their own candidates(Most of the dozen or so active other third parties can’t, usually working together as a coalition to nominate a single candidate. Rocky De Le Fuente is a recent example of this), but they’re far behind the other two, only getting 1/5th of a percent nationally at best(Though on the state level they’ve gotten as high as 4%). After rising in the Obama era as a major Tea Party contributor, they’ve weakened massively following the rightward shift of the GOP and infighting with other small right parties like the AIP(Of George Wallace ‘Foreva’ fame) or ADP. They’ve been outperformed by hotshot independents and coalition candidates several times, but most notably in 2020 did worse than the newcomer and potential new ‘3rd Third’.
The PSL (Party for Socialism and Liberation, or Socialist Liberation Party) is a Communist-Socialist-Marxist party founded in 2004. They are the fastest growing Third Party in the USA. They went from not even being the Top Communist Party in 2008(getting slightly fewer votes than the Socialist Workers Party, who are the second oldest third party active RN dating back to the 1930s and are the second largest communist party here even today), to top of the Communists in 2012, to 5th best overall in 2016(Behind the Big 3 and Evan McMullin) to Top 3 in 2020. They’re widely predicted to eclipse the Constitution Party(arguably already have) and get comparable numbers to the Greens in the states they run in. They’re also 4th overall in Ballot Access(Behind the Libertarians, Greens, and RFK Jr) this year. Their final totals could be quite close to the Libertarians given how badly they’ve fallen apart as of late, and between that and Jill Stein’s retirement after this election they’re set to be the biggest 3rd Party nationally by 2028. They’ve also gained a reputation for avoiding the purity checks and hardline member stances of the other parties, instead focusing on co-opting and controlling grassroots leftist movements, using on the ground operatives for more media exposure, and absorbing smaller communist parties.
That really only effects the question if Georgia is the last state to matter which is highly unlikely in most scenarios (If it goes Blue it’s a 2020 repeat and if it goes Red there’s tight races elsewhere to focus on like Arizona and Pennsylvania). Not the question.
If I recall correctly Gore (probably) won with a full state wide recount, but in the counties he asked for he ironically (probably) would have ended up losing. I say probably because both of these are tight enough to be within the margin of error. Or fix the butterfly ballot issue. Of course Gore also only won New Mexico by a 366 votes so who knows what that would have ended up with if either side actually cared(not enough EC to matter if they lost Florida, but still dead close and recounts probably favored Bush).
That doesn’t really answer the final question though. Is it going to be called Election Day like 7 of the 11? The day after(or really the morning after) like 2004 or 2016? Is it going to last days like 2020? Or weeks like in 2000?
Off topic, but looking for an active thread.
How long do you think counting will take this year?
Out of the 11 elections in the current (6th) party system, 7 of them were called before midnight on election day. (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2008, and just barely 2012 although that only just barely got called before midnight). Out of the other 4: 2016 was called about 2 hours after midnight and 2004 was called about 10 hours after midnight(so both the next morning). 2020 took about 3 days to call, albeit there was no concession here so the exact end-time isn’t clear. 2000 took over a month infamously.
(Russian Region including both Kursk and Belgorod)
Also the Ohio thing makes sense when you look at the Senate map. There are exactly two remotely competitive races, Montana and Ohio. Ohio is leaning blue and Montana is leaning red. Picking JD boosts Ohio and Trump is campaigning in Montana right now. Those choices were both made when Biden was still in so seemingly the idea was to secure the Senate and grab an extra seat or two so it’s not razor tight and vulnerable to RINOs.
I just heard her speak for the first time today.
Better than Joe, but I don’t think she’s Obama tier. That man was king of the mic.
All I’m gonna say is that if they get this wrong, it’s the biggest upset in the betting circuit thus far.
They had Kamala ahead of Biden for a full 5 days prior to him dropping out and she had been solidly second place since the 30th (Newsom initially had a spike, but then fell), trading first place with Biden several times before that final soar.
JD Vance was solidly Top 2 in the Rep VP race from early June onward and was Number 1 most days in July outside of one or two brief Burgum spikes.
They were pretty solid on Trump being the Rep nominee from the start of 2023 onward, only a brief dip around the midterms.
Shapiro has been in the Top 2 solidly since betting opened on the 23rd-24th(And by that time people like Newsom and Whitmer who might have had an early lead had betting opened on the 21st or before Biden dropped had publically said no) and has had an extremely strong lead since the 30th never dropping below 20 points ahead of second place and briefly getting as high as 50 points ahead of everyone else.
There also hasn’t been a consistent second place option ala Burgum, Kelly was the other guy to hit first place and traded spots with Shapiro initially, but he tanked horribly on the 30th-31st and never recovered. Beshear has been first once or twice and was a strong 3rd or 4th prior, but he’s never gotten to 20% or higher. Same with Buttigieg. Walz is the strongest right now, and he admittedly was handicapped a bit as he didn’t get put on the poll until the 31st(His name wasn’t on the initial first week list at all and by the time he was popping up hard the betting already opened), but even accounting for that at his best he’s never gotten to the level of Mark Kelly pre-30th(who was in the mid 30s point wise peaking at 44%), let alone Shapiro post-30th (who has been anywhere from 55-77%).
What caused the gigantic spike in the betting odds for Beshear? The website FINALLY added Tim Walz(he got on the radar of the media like, the day after the website started tracking, so until this morning he was just lumped in OTHER which caused the funny situation of OTHER being the third biggest option). I also know why Roy Cooper tanked since he said he was out. But it looked like the Top 4 was solidly Shapiro and Kelly in the Top 2 and then Walz in a strong third(OTHER until recently) and then Beshear fighting Mayor Pete for 4th and 5th.
Just to say, I’m increasingly uncertain about how truthful it really is that JD Vance was the worst possible pick for Trump and the best case for the democrats. If the matchup was still Biden, perhaps. But the thing is, Kamala has the black vote, Indian vote, and to a lesser extent the Female vote on lockdown now. She’s the candidate, she’s got them turning out hard, any attempt for Trump to win some over with someone like Carson or Swaney would have been utterly undone and rendered moot. There’s a bit more of an argument for the women, but Nikki was too troublesome and most of the other options are either old or look old. Trump needed someone young to shore up that flank, who won’t depress his base(or will help boost them, albeit after the shooting that’s not needed), helps him look sane and the ticket by proxy, and is at least potentially helpful with either the rust belt whites or Hispanics(who are the actually gettable ones against Harris). Vance is young, helps the base, and might edge out a few rust belt voters. He’s useless with Hispanics though and doesn’t help the moderate issue. So still not great, but a lot of the picks people were worried about like Ben Carson would have been completely neutralized by Harris with hindsight. The threat of Trump pulling over key black voters is a dead threat and that’s not where the VP sway matters most right now.
The two picks that would be better than Vance(and the two you should feel worried about Trump switching to in the next 10 days) are Doug Burgum and Glenn Youngkin. Burgum has a lot of the same advantages as Vance, and he comes off as a lot more sane and less stupid, albeit at the cost of being older than Harris and most of her VP choices. That one could go either way honestly and I doubt Trump would risk the optics for someone barely better, but if he did he could be an issue especially as it kills stories like OP. The real threat would be Glenn Youngkin. He’s younger than Harris by two years and younger than almost all her VP options. He’s a white guy, he comes off as more moderate than Trump or Vance by comparison, but not so much to risk depressing the base like Haley, and he’s younger(Also he has Young in his last name, easy to work with). The biggest threat with him though is that he’d give a boost in Virginia, and while Post-Biden that’s not a death sentence it forces Harris to commit resources and time to a state the Republicans don’t really need to win and the Democrats really cannot afford to lose. Also both Burgum and Youngkin have tech industry roots and heavy ties. They might not be Vance tier loyalists, but they’ll sing the tune of the Paypal Mafia if they must.
One thing worth noting about how much the devil is in the details.
Arizona and Nevada are still leaning pretty solidly R at the moment.(Trump’s hispanic margins have steadily gone up since 2016, dropping the wall focus helped a lot). Wisconsin and Michigan are the closest to going D albeit Trump still leans ahead. PA is in the middle and is the most important of the set. (North Carolina is the strongest R of all 7, and Georgia is the Libertarian Ex-Democrat Chase Olivers homestate which combined with Cornell West’s strong focus there and the election commission shenanigans means those two are out of play barring some good luck and Roy Cooper being picked. Trump would have won Georgia in 2020 with no third party vote and those have leaned left since. I don’t consider them swing states unless Andy or Roy are on board).
In the Rust Belt Focus scenario(They pick Shapiro or Walz and make Pennsylvania the biggest focus as it’s the most important state, and manage to finish ahead in all 3, at the cost of Arizona, Nevada, and the Southern States), the final score is 268-270. A win, but a damn tight one.
Except…Nebraska. Nebraska is putting a law up in September to change the way their state distributes to be Winner Take All. If it goes through it would be passed in October, taking away one D vote from Omaha and giving it to R. (Maine has threatened to do the same if Nebraska does, but they wouldn’t have it done til after the election if they did, not enough time). That would change the above scenario to a 269-269 decided by the current House…which is Trump run and even if it wasn’t it’s state by state and more than 26 states are safe red even in a blue wave scenario. Though it would leave the VP pick to the Senate, which is democrat right now, and while it couldn’t be Harris due to her current spot anyone else would be came. So there’d be a very real chance of a Trump/Shapiro ticket which would be a dysfunctional nightmare and would have a massive chance of one of the two getting murdered.(I can’t find a source if it’s the current senate or the newly elected one as they get inaugurated seperately from the president, but if the senate falls which looks likely the Republicans can pick the VP, and while the House is leaning democrat due to it being state by state it would be R regardless).
This ALSO happens in the reverse scenario, where the Dems focus on the Southwestern States with Mark Kelly(taking Arizona and Nevada) AND manage to put on enough pressure to take Wisconsin and Michigan(which are the closest and Kelly while he isn’t a winning deal there is still better than nothing), but are unable to win Pennsylvania(which is a lot more red leaning and without Shapiro or Walz is probably going red). 270 - 268 win for Democrats…unless Nebraska changes the law in which case it’s a tie, House picks, see above.
The specific configuration of which states go where makes a tie super likely this year especially if Nebraska switches their rules(which isn’t unconstitutional, they picked a weird unique system and they can unpick it, the other system is used by 48 states that’s all above board. The scummy part is the timing as it would leave Maine without time to change their own system before the election and thus secure an extra R vote without an extra D vote from changing Maine). There are also tie scenarios in the event Nebraska doesn’t change, namely the “Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia go blue, everything else goes Red” possibility if someone like Beshear or Cooper is picked ends in a 269-269 tie, as does a couple of scenarios where Maine-State swings Red(which it has come extremely close to more than once), turning narrow Blue wins into ties. And if those scenarios happened alongisde a Nebraska change they’d suddenly be 270-268 clean wins.
It’s probably a trap…but beating him there would be a huge huge fucking deal. Trump took the last debate on Biden teams terms and despite that Biden still cocked it up and that made the burn worse(had that debate been on Fox the age issues would have been blamed on their audio mixing and editing and the room being too hot and crap). If Trump loses on his own turf on his rules with his followers watching?
Problem is that weakens the dems, see Ralph Nader
I will note the idea Harris was picked at the 2020 primaries is bunk, people don’t vote on a President/VP ticket then(though that would be an interesting system). Harris was picked by Biden, and while she was on the 2020 ticket in the national election it’s impossible to say how many people she swayed.
I don’t think she’s perfect, but unlike Hillary at least Harris was picked by circumstance, even if unfortunate circumstance, not appointed years in advance like Hillary was. (Hillary had been intending to go for it after she gained some political experience and Bill’s scandal faded. Al Gore was supposed to carry the democrats, but that didn’t work out, and JFK Jr who was being courted for a 2004 run died in a plane crash in 1999, so they had to work with John Kerry which didn’t go well. Then Hillary was ready and initially had party favor, but Obama came in like a locomotive without brakes: All the DNC’s horses and all the RNCs men couldn’t stop Obama in 08, no my friend)