Link to Haaretz??
This is breaking news. I would have preferred a different site.
BBC, MSNBC and AP are also reporting
Legit all of them are reporting
Assuming the new candidate(probably Harris) avoid any major disasters as does Trump, we’ll be returning to the May 2024 status quo of things. Harris is more popular than post-debate Biden, was slightly behind pre-debate Biden, and will probably need a month to get back there(winning the nomination and undoing all the damage from 4 weeks of infighting.)
On the plus side, that’ll drop the hemorrhaging, New Mexico and New Jersey safe, Virginia and Minnesota probably safe. On the downside at this point Georgia and North Carolina are lost, there just isn’t time and the Republicans spent 4 years pouring resources into them.
This is back to the main 5. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The important factor is that if they lose Pennsylvania, they lose. They can win the other 4 here, but it’s 268-270. Unless they snag something extra like Georgia(unlikely in this scenario), that’s it.
If they win Pennsylvania, they need at least two others in ideal circumstances(Michigan needs to be one of the two and Nevada can’t be one of the two, second one would have to be Wisconsin or Arizona), 3 others in unideal circumstances if Michigan isn’t there and they get Nevada. I should also note several of these scenarios are razor thin (270-268 with Pensylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and 271-267 with Arizona instead) and thus vulnerable to faithless electors. Or worse, if Maine’s statewide went red(which is more likely than Georgia going blue or Virginia going red at this point) the former would be a win and the latter would be a tie. In the tie scenario the House picks the president(so Trump) and the Senate picks the Vice President(so Vance would be ousted) which would be an absolute nightmare and gambling on Trump dying in that situation isn’t worth it.
I note this because even in the base line May scenario Pennsylvania was one of the worse polling one for democrats(Arizona and Wisconsin were the blue edging ones), and Pennsylvania is not a state where the stars are aligning. It was Biden’s home state, Scranton boy, him being off the ticket hurts things there probably more than they help. AND, while it’s true nationwide the post-shooting bump for Trump was relatively minor, Pennsylvania is where the shooting happened and has gotten the largest bump in the polls since, 3 or 4 points. Biden leaving demotivates the base there harder than anywhere else in the county and the Trump shooting re-motivated the base there harder than most.
My call? If they don’t pick Shapiro or Whitmer, it’s over 100%, and even with it’s iffy. Pennsylvania is perhaps the one state where any replacement is going to do worse than Biden even post-debate, and the one state the Trump shooting caused a notable bump. What are the odds it’s also the single most crucial state in this election?
That’s fairly grim reading but I appreciate the depth of it for a foreigner so thank you.
Personally if it were my magic wand, we would nominate the 🥾 (Buttigieg)
He would STOMP that orange.
He may very well. I hope that he challenges Harris and that they have a couple debates or make their arguments on a livestream. That would be good for America to hear their platforms and share their opinions about who they think the stronger candidate is.
If Harris is the replacement then Trump has already won. We’re screwed.
In a well country, Harris wins over Trump, no contest. We are not well.
Yep. Harris is a traditional, middle-of-the-road milquetoast politician. She’s probably too conservative for progressives and regardless of her positions will be painted as a flaming lefty by conservative media. She will probably have similar results to Biden, who was until now on track to lose.
I hope that she gains some superhuman self-awareness and takes some risks with actual progressive politics - she’ll get bad press from the Fox echo chamber, but right now she needs any press to get voters to pay attention.
Harris is a self-serving prosecutor who routinely oversentenced people to private prison just to boost her political career.
She was the most tone deaf choice in the wake of the Floyd murder and BLM protests, her skin color notwithstanding.
Can she string two sentences together? I don’t think you realize how low the bar’s fallen, buddy.
Odd question, if it’s only been posted on x, who’s to say it wasn’t hacked?
That’s a very good question, I’ve been searching high and low for sources, but the only source at this writing remain the post on the thing formerly known as twitter, which IMO is decidedly irresponsible, as that’s a notoriously unreliable source.
It would be nice if at least some journalists wrote if they had the story confirmed.I can almost guarantee with it being the top story on all major news sites that they’ve received some confirmation. If not when majority of Democrats wanted him to drop out, if he insists he was hacked & is staying in… He’ll lose even more voters.
With how hot the media has been for getting him to drop out, I’d even accept one of the articles to say out loud that they’ve confirmed the post.
My dislike of x might be showing a bit.
It has been reported on AP first.
I don’t really get the down votes. They genuinely said it was an odd question and this election cycle is already fucking weird.
That’s it, we’re done. I’m still voting, but we are fucked. Dems just gave the white house to Trump. Free.
lol:
“we’re so fucked if he runs!”
“we’re so fucked now that he dropped out!”
Jesus Christ.
Yeah, I’m getting whiplash from the talking points all around me.
I’m quite confident that Biden has spared us a certain defeat.
Biden was giving Trump the White House for free. Joe should have dropped out two weeks ago when it was obvious he was going to lose to Trump.
I’m inclined to agree; if he was going to do it, he should have done it as soon as possible.
There are scant few campaigning days left until the general election; every one is precious.
I’m still really grateful that he did it and listened. This is a big and positive shift.
He should get some major props, too. It’s a selfless act for the good of the country, and he didn’t have to do it.
he didn’t have to do it?
Really? Is democracy on the line or isn’t it? He had to do it cause he was going to lose to Trump and throw the House & Senate to MAGA. Biden doesn’t have to not push the nuclear launch buttons before he leaves office. Yay Joe, you are so selfless for not pushing the nuclear launch buttons. You could have, but major props for being so selfless for not doing it.
You really don’t see the issue here? This happened way too late.
I’m so very glad to see him stop embarrassing himself. It was just so cringe and, far more importantly, he was likely to completely destroy the Democratic Party - possibly forever, given the stakes in this year’s election.
This precisely. He was hurting the Democrats. The time to reflect about Biden is after beating Trump in November. The more time Democrats spend praising Biden now, the more they are going to hurt their chances of victory.
Things just got reeeeeeaaaallllly interesting. Who will the candidate be? Harris? And who will their running mate be? So close to the election… when will this rollercoaster end?
Harris is the only candidate that has access to the existing campaign funds. As AOC pointed out, there are only eight weeks until early voting ballots are sent out. That’s not enough time for someone else to fundraise and run a successful campaign unless the candidate is independently wealthy.
How do other countries have such short election cycles?
Reliable news publications and actively informed voters would be my guess.
Don’t know yet. Still trying to read what was said. I hope they leave it open to the delegates to decide at the convention.
Mother fucker should’ve ran. The Democrats couldn’t held a primary and we would have had a chance. This last minute drop out just fucks us. Biden doesn’t care he will be dead soon. What a fucking mess. While the GOP have time to campaign and are ready for November the Democrats will need to even figure out who to run and what if they can’t get on the ballot in key states. Isn’t there deadlines that have passed?
No, no deadlines have passed. Ohio extended the deadline already. An open convention will energize the party. Biden not stepping aside was the last thing holding Democrats back from crushing Trump in November.
It’s going to be Harris.
But I hope it’s someone else.
I don’t have anything against Kamala and I think she’d be better than Biden. But democrats really need someone they can get excited about. Not having that is why they lost 2016, and why 2020 was as close as it was.
Probably Nov 5th
Hillary 2024!!! Who’s with me???
tumbleweed
Actually… No, that’s not fair to Banana…
I don’t even think Hillary will be with you there, bud.
She’s self-centered enough to believe that it’s a sign. But no, I think even the DNC understands that it’d be a bad idea.
On a related note, wouldn’t it be the ultimate political punchline of trump ended up losing to her?
Oh my gawd, I’d so love to see that happen, if I’m being honest. I just don’t think she could win, or would actually run, but who knows.
Seeing all the memes of cons trying cope would be like manna from heaven.
I think you underestimate her hubris.
Do not read aloud from a book that summons demons, even as a joke.
Well, I half-expected to be stabbed in the eye across the internet, but instead I got (at the time of making this comment) just one downvote instead, so it didn’t turn out too bad.
